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Environmental protection has spurred new changes in the oil market

author:管理员 Publication time:2018-07-19 13:45:51 Read: 1674 second
A few days ago, with the release of a paper document "Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defence War" (hereinafter referred to as the "Three-Year Action Plan"), a battle against the whole people and the high-profile blue sky defense campaign was launched. The "Three-Year Action Plan" can be said to be an upgraded version of the "Atmosphere Ten". It covers the remediation of various aspects of air pollution in China, and the oil products and related markets are naturally important parts. The implementation of the plan will have a profound impact on China's oil market in the later period.
China's six oil products supply into the tough stage
According to the results of atmospheric fine particle source analysis, motor vehicles, especially diesel vehicles, have become the primary source of pollution in many large and medium-sized cities. Ding Yan, deputy director of the Vehicle Emissions Monitoring Center of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, pointed out that from the national situation, the number of diesel trucks accounted for 7.8% of the national car, but the emissions of nitrogen oxides and particulate matter accounted for 57.3%, 77.8% of vehicle emissions.
At the same time, the quality of diesel fuel is very prominent.
“The quality of diesel oil in private gas stations in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas has reached 50%, especially the black fueling stations are everywhere. According to relevant measures, the passing rate of diesel fuel tanks is less than 10%.” Ding Yan said frankly.
In order to effectively prevent and control air pollution, China's automotive gasoline and diesel was fully upgraded to the National Five Standard in early 2017, one year ahead of schedule. Up to now, the “2+26” city has achieved the national six standard, and the Yangtze River Delta region and Guangdong region are also expected to upgrade to the national six standard three to four months in advance. In accordance with the "Three-Year Action Plan" deployment, China will accelerate the upgrading of oil quality. From January 1st, 2019, the country will supply a full range of automotive gasoline and diesel products in line with the national six standards, stop selling gasoline and diesel oils lower than the national six standard, and realize the “three oils and coal mines” for vehicle diesel, ordinary diesel oil and some marine oils. Cancel the ordinary diesel standard, and implement the key areas, the Pearl River Delta region, and the Chengdu-Chongqing region in advance. At the same time, we will add fuel-purifying synergists that meet environmental requirements in automotive gasoline and diesel before sales.
"Comparatively, the quality control standards of the National Sixth Gasoline are mainly aimed at the stricter control of the content of benzene, olefins and aromatics, while the diesel oil has reduced the content of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons. In the context of accelerating the upgrading of oil quality, domestic steam Diesel quality implements the same sales standards. With the continuous liberalization of crude oil import policies, the differentiation of main units and refining products will be further narrowed, and the competition situation in the region will intensify,” said Xu Lei, an analyst at Zhongyu Information.
Refining and chemical industry integration development or speeding up
The "Three-Year Action Plan" clearly requires the optimization of industrial layout, the elimination of backward production capacity and the reduction of excess capacity. Actively implement regional and planned environmental impact assessments, and environmental impact assessments for new, modified, and expanded steel, petrochemical, chemical, coking, building materials, and non-ferrous projects should meet regional and planning environmental assessment requirements.
“Although it is not specifically pointed out for the refining and chemical industry, China is gradually promoting the structural optimization and adjustment of the refining and chemical industry.” Li Yang emphasized that the construction of China’s seven major petrochemical industrial bases is progressing in an orderly manner, and many refining and chemical integration projects have been approved for construction. In this respect, it is conducive to improving the overall competitiveness of China's refining and chemical industry. On the other hand, it also considers optimizing the industrial structure of the refining industry.
It is worth mentioning that the requirements for environmental assessment of new, modified and expanded refining and chemical projects have also been gradually improved, and the firm attitude of the construction source is strictly controlled, and this has been highlighted in relevant cases. “Recently, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment has rejected the environmental assessment book on the reclamation project of Zhoushan Green Petrochemical Base and proposed a number of revision opinions. It can be seen that relevant national departments have begun to strictly implement the “Three-Year Action Plan.” Li Yang added.
In addition, the optimal adjustment of the energy structure and transport structure is also included in the Three-Year Action Plan. In Li Yang's view, the increased use of clean energy and new energy will undoubtedly form a certain substitute for traditional gasoline and diesel.
"In the later period, China's diesel consumption has zero growth or even negative growth, and the trend of further slowdown in gasoline consumption growth is difficult to change. With the continued expansion of China's refining capacity, the excess oil pressure will be more obvious, and the level of refined oil exports will continue to climb. "Talking about the market trend, Li Yang predicted.
The blending oil market will welcome the overall reshuffle
The reporter found that in the section “Intensifying Environmental Law Enforcement”, the “Three-Year Action Plan” clearly proposed to strengthen the quality supervision and management of oil products manufacturing enterprises, and severely crack down on production, sales, and use of unqualified oil products and vehicles. With the use of urea, it is forbidden to sell blending oil components in the name of chemical raw materials. It is forbidden to blend blending oil with chemical raw materials. It is strictly forbidden for transport enterprises to store and use non-standard oils and resolutely ban black fueling stations.
Du Yuan, an analyst of Jinlian Chuang Oil, believes that for the first time, it is banned to sell blended oil components in the name of chemical raw materials, and it is forbidden to blend chemical oil with blending oil. This is another big country after the upgrade of the refined oil consumption tax invoice system. Sharp weapon.
“As we all know, blending oil has been growing vigorously in the gray area, but its quality has a certain gap with the refined oil produced by the refinery, and even worse, it adds environmentally harmful chemicals to the environment, which has a negative impact on the environment. Cutting off the raw materials of blending oil producers will directly lead to reshuffle and scale reduction of the industry. At the same time, it will indirectly affect some production enterprises with blending oil as the main downstream, such as aromatics, solvent oil and other industries or face low-price competition. The shrinking situation." Du Yuan analysis said.
"The "Three-Year Action Plan" as a programmatic document puts forward general requirements for the post-environmental governance work. The work of each work must be divided and coordinated by specific departments of responsibility, and the specific implementation process will also play a game with relevant stakeholders. Analyst Li Yang said frankly, but from the perspective of content rhetoric, the "Three-Year Action Plan" is more targeted than before, indicating that the country is more determined to environmental governance. In the long run, the oil market is becoming more environmentally friendly. The background will become increasingly standardized, and the challenges will become more apparent.
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